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Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming
Author(s) -
Shaffer Gary,
Huber Matthew,
Rondanelli Roberto,
Pepke Pedersen Jens Olaf
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl069243
Subject(s) - global warming , climate sensitivity , environmental science , greenhouse gas , climate change , climatology , runaway climate change , climate system , climate commitment , atmospheric sciences , sensitivity (control systems) , range (aeronautics) , climate model , effects of global warming , geology , oceanography , materials science , electronic engineering , engineering , composite material
Abstract Future global warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will depend on climate feedbacks, the effect of which is expressed by climate sensitivity, the warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 content. It is not clear how feedbacks, sensitivity, and temperature will evolve in our warming world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate‐carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8 Ma ago, a possible future warming analogue. We obtain constrained estimates of CO 2 and climate sensitivity before and during the PETM and of the PETM carbon input amount and nature. Sensitivity increased from 3.3–5.6 to 3.7–6.5 K (Kelvin) into the PETM. When taken together with Last Glacial Maximum and modern estimates, this result indicates climate sensitivity increase with global warming.