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The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate
Author(s) -
Sévellec F.,
Sinha B.,
Skliris N.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl068950
Subject(s) - hiatus , radiative forcing , climatology , forcing (mathematics) , global warming , climate model , surge , climate change , climate system , environmental science , geology , oceanography , paleontology , geomorphology
The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade‐long slowdown in surface warming, the so‐called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and “surges” (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a “business as usual” scenario. For “CO 2 stabilisation” scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability.