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Characterizing the extreme 2015 snowpack deficit in the Sierra Nevada (USA) and the implications for drought recovery
Author(s) -
Margulis Steven A.,
Cortés Gonzalo,
Girotto Manuela,
Huning Laurie S.,
Li Dongyue,
Durand Michael
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl068520
Subject(s) - snowpack , snow , environmental science , return period , climatology , range (aeronautics) , water year , atmospheric sciences , physical geography , geography , geology , meteorology , drainage basin , materials science , cartography , archaeology , composite material , flood myth
Analysis of the Sierra Nevada (USA) snowpack using a new spatially distributed snow reanalysis data set, in combination with longer term in situ data, indicates that water year 2015 was a truly extreme (dry) year. The range‐wide peak snow volume was characterized by a return period of over 600 years (95% confidence interval between 100 and 4400 years) having a strong elevational gradient with a return period at lower elevations over an order of magnitude larger than those at higher elevations. The 2015 conditions, occurring on top of three previous drought years, led to an accumulated (multiyear) snowpack deficit of ~ −22 km 3 , the highest over the 65 years analyzed. Early estimates based on 1 April snow course data indicate that the snowpack drought deficit will not be overcome in 2016, despite historically strong El Niño conditions. Results based on a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation show that recovery from the snowpack drought will likely take about 4 years.