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The contribution of ozone to future stratospheric temperature trends
Author(s) -
Maycock A. C.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl068511
Subject(s) - stratosphere , ozone , atmospheric sciences , ozone layer , environmental science , ozone depletion , coupled model intercomparison project , climatology , greenhouse gas , representative concentration pathways , tropospheric ozone , atmospheric chemistry , troposphere , climate model , climate change , meteorology , geology , physics , oceanography
The projected recovery of ozone from the effects of ozone depleting substances this century will modulate the stratospheric cooling due to CO 2 , thereby affecting the detection and attribution of stratospheric temperature trends. Here the impact of future ozone changes on stratospheric temperatures is quantified for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using simulations from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For models with interactive chemistry, ozone trends offset ~50% of the global annual mean upper stratospheric cooling due to CO 2 for RCP4.5 and 20% for RCP8.5 between 2006–2015 and 2090–2099. For RCP2.6, ozone trends cause a net warming of the upper and lower stratosphere. The misspecification of ozone trends for RCP2.6/RCP4.5 in models that used the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC)/Stratosphere‐troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Ozone Database causes anomalous warming (cooling) of the upper (lower) stratosphere compared to chemistry‐climate models. The dependence of ozone chemistry on greenhouse gas concentrations should therefore be better represented in CMIP6.