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Role of soil moisture versus recent climate change for the 2010 heat wave in western Russia
Author(s) -
Hauser Mathias,
Orth René,
Seneviratne Sonia I.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl068036
Subject(s) - climate change , environmental science , heat wave , water content , moisture , climatology , atmospheric sciences , geology , meteorology , geography , geotechnical engineering , oceanography
The severe 2010 heat wave in western Russia was found to be influenced by anthropogenic climate change. Additionally, soil moisture‐temperature feedbacks were deemed important for the buildup of the exceptionally high temperatures. We quantify the relative role of both factors by applying the probabilistic event attribution framework and analyze ensemble simulations to distinguish the effect of climate change and the 2010 soil moisture conditions for annual maximum temperatures. The dry 2010 soil moisture alone has increased the risk of a severe heat wave in western Russia sixfold, while climate change from 1960 to 2000 has approximately tripled it. The combined effect of climate change and 2010 soil moisture yields a 13 times higher heat wave risk. We conclude that internal climate variability causing the dry 2010 soil moisture conditions formed a necessary basis for the extreme heat wave.