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Solar forcing over the last 1500 years and Australian tropical cyclone activity
Author(s) -
Haig Jordahna EllanAnn,
Nott Jonathan
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl068012
Subject(s) - tropical cyclone , climatology , centennial , tropical cyclogenesis , cyclone (programming language) , environmental science , forcing (mathematics) , tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting , tropical cyclone scales , geography , geology , archaeology , field programmable gate array , computer science , computer hardware
Abstract Accurate seasonal and decadal predictions of tropical cyclone activity are essential for the development of mitigation strategies for the 2.7 billion residents living within cyclone prone regions. The traditional indices (Southern Oscillation Index and various sea surface temperature indices) have fallen short in recent years as seasonal predictors within the Australian region. The short length of these records (i.e., <50 years) has meant that our current knowledge of larger‐scale drivers at interdecadal, centennial, and millennial scales is limited. The development of a new tropical cyclone activity index spanning the last 1500 years has enabled the examination of tropical cyclone climatology at higher temporal resolution than was previously possible. Here we show that in addition to other well‐known climate indices, solar forcing largely drives decadal, interdecadal, and centennial cycles within the tropical cyclone record.