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Potential for long‐lead prediction of the western North Pacific monsoon circulation beyond seasonal time scales
Author(s) -
Choi Jung,
Son SeokWoo,
Seo KyongHwan,
Lee JuneYi,
Kang HyunSuk
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl067902
Subject(s) - hindcast , climatology , environmental science , circulation (fluid dynamics) , monsoon , lead (geology) , walker circulation , forecast skill , el niño southern oscillation , lead time , general circulation model , la niña , coupled model intercomparison project , predictability , atmospheric sciences , oceanography , geology , climate change , mathematics , statistics , physics , geomorphology , marketing , business , thermodynamics
Abstract Although the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon circulation significantly impacts the socioeconomic communities around Asia, its prediction is only limited to a few months. By examining the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 decadal hindcast experiments, we explore a possibility of the extended prediction skill for the WNP monsoon circulation beyond seasonal time scales. It is found that the multimodel ensemble (MME) predictions, initialized in January, successfully predict the WNP circulation in spring and early summer. Somewhat surprisingly, a reliable prediction of the WNP circulation appears even in the following spring with a maximum lead time of 14 months. This unexpected prediction skill is likely caused by the improved El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction and the exaggerated dynamical link between the ENSO and premonsoon circulation in the MME prediction. Although further studies are needed, this result may open up new opportunities for the multiseasonal prediction of the WNP monsoon circulation.