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Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
Author(s) -
McGuire A. David,
Koven Charles,
Lawrence David M.,
Clein Joy S.,
Xia Jiangyang,
Beer Christian,
Burke Eleanor,
Chen Guangsheng,
Chen Xiaodong,
Delire Christine,
Jafarov Elchin,
MacDougall Andrew H.,
Marchenko Sergey,
Nicolsky Dmitry,
Peng Shushi,
Rinke Annette,
Saito Kazuyuki,
Zhang Wenxin,
Alkama Ramdane,
Bohn Theodore J.,
Ciais Philippe,
Decharme Bertrand,
Ekici Altug,
Gouttevin Isabelle,
Hajima Tomohiro,
Hayes Daniel J.,
Ji Duoying,
Krinner Gerhard,
Lettenmaier Dennis P.,
Luo Yiqi,
Miller Paul A.,
Moore John C.,
Romanovsky Vladimir,
Schädel Christina,
Schaefer Kevin,
Schuur Edward A.G.,
Smith Benjamin,
Sueyoshi Tetsuo,
Zhuang Qianlai
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
global biogeochemical cycles
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.512
H-Index - 187
eISSN - 1944-9224
pISSN - 0886-6236
DOI - 10.1002/2016gb005405
Subject(s) - permafrost , environmental science , northern hemisphere , atmospheric sciences , vegetation (pathology) , soil water , climatology , soil carbon , climate change , greenhouse gas , primary production , physical geography , soil science , geology , ecosystem , ecology , geography , oceanography , medicine , pathology , biology
A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO 2 and CH 4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near‐surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 10 3 km 2 yr −1 ). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr −1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO 2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.