Open AccessFuture scenarios for earthquake and flood risk in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Author(s) -
Murnane R. J.,
Daniell J. E.,
Schäfer A. M.,
Ward P. J.,
Winsemius H. C.,
Simpson A.,
Tijssen A.,
Toro J.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
earth's future
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.641
H-Index - 39
ISSN - 2328-4277
DOI - 10.1002/2016ef000481
Subject(s) - flood myth , population , gross domestic product , climate change , geography , relative risk , socioeconomic status , population growth , economics , economic growth , environmental health , medicine , statistics , mathematics , geology , archaeology , confidence interval , oceanography
Abstract We report on a regional flood and earthquake risk assessment for 33 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Flood and earthquake risk were defined in terms of affected population and affected gross domestic product (GDP). Earthquake risk was also quantified in terms of fatalities and capital loss. Estimates of future population and GDP affected by earthquakes vary significantly among five shared socioeconomic pathways that are used to represent population and GDP in 2030 and 2080. There is a linear relationship between the future relative change in a nation's exposure (population or GDP) and its future relative change in annual average population or GDP affected by earthquakes. The evolution of flood hazard was quantified using a flood model with boundary conditions derived from five different general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways, and changes in population and GDP were quantified using two shared socioeconomic pathways. There is a nonlinear relationship between the future relative change in a nation's exposure (population or GDP) and its future relative change in its annual average population or GDP affected by floods. Six regions can be defined for positive and negative relative change in population that designate whether climate change can temper, counter, or reinforce relative changes in flood risk produced by changes in population or exposure. The departure from the one‐to‐one relationship between a relative change in a nation's population or GDP and its relative change in flood risk could be used to inform further efforts at flood mitigation and adaptation.