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El N iño and the U . S . precipitation and floods: What was expected for the January–March 2016 winter hydroclimate that is now unfolding?
Author(s) -
Steinschneider Scott,
Lall Upmanu
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1002/2015wr018470
Subject(s) - precipitation , el niño southern oscillation , climatology , environmental science , geography , oceanography , geology , meteorology
Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific exhibited persistent warming beginning in January 2015 and by November 2015 were predicted to deliver a strong El Niño in the coming winter, perhaps the strongest on record, with wide‐reaching hydroclimate impacts. As ENSO continues to evolve over the 2016 winter season, we ask the question: To what degree could ENSO‐related hydroclimate impacts have been anticipated a season prior? We provide a retrospective hydroclimate outlook for the 2016 winter, accounting for the prevailing uncertainties that often pose a challenge to local resource managers seeking to make use of seasonal forecasts.