El N iño and the U . S . precipitation and floods: What was expected for the January–March 2016 winter hydroclimate that is now unfolding?

Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific exhibited persistent warming beginning in January 2015 and by November 2015 were predicted to deliver a strong El Niño in the coming winter, perhaps the strongest on record, with wide‐reaching hydroclimate impacts. As ENSO continues to evolve over the 2016 winter season, we ask the question: To what degree could ENSO‐related hydroclimate impacts have been anticipated a season prior? We provide a retrospective hydroclimate outlook for the 2016 winter, accounting for the prevailing uncertainties that often pose a challenge to local resource managers seeking to make use of seasonal forecasts.