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Conceptualizing socio‐hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse
Author(s) -
Kuil Linda,
Carr Gemma,
Viglione Alberto,
Prskawetz Alexia,
Blöschl Günter
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1002/2015wr018298
Subject(s) - stylized fact , water security , population , climate change , population growth , water scarcity , agriculture , geography , environmental science , natural resource economics , water resource management , water resources , ecology , economics , biology , demography , macroeconomics , archaeology , sociology
Abstract With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio‐hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600–830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger.