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Multimodel ensemble projection of precipitation in eastern China under A1B emission scenario
Author(s) -
Niu Xiaorui,
Wang Shuyu,
Tang Jianping,
Lee DongKyou,
Gao Xuejie,
Wu Jia,
Hong Songyou,
Gutowski William J.,
McGregor John
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1002/2015jd023853
Subject(s) - climatology , precipitation , climate model , environmental science , china , climate change , monsoon , subtropics , subtropical ridge , representative concentration pathways , geography , meteorology , geology , archaeology , oceanography , fishery , biology
As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, future precipitation projection in China is constructed using five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the same global climate model (GCM) of European Centre/Hamburg version 5. The simulations cover both the control climate (1978–2000) and future projection (2041–2070) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. For the control climate, the RCMs have an advantage over the driving GCM in reproducing the summer mean precipitation distribution and the annual cycle. The biases in simulating summer precipitation mainly are caused by the deficiencies in reproducing the low‐level circulation, such as the western Pacific subtropical high. In addition, large inter‐RCM differences exist in the summer precipitation simulations. For the future climate, consistent and inconsistent changes in precipitation between the driving GCM and the nested RCMs are observed. Similar changes in summer precipitation are projected by RCMs over western China, but model behaviors are quite different over eastern China, which is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The inter‐RCM difference of rainfall changes is more pronounced in spring over eastern China. North China and the southern part of South China are very likely to experience less summer rainfall in multi‐RCM mean (MRM) projection, while limited credibility in increased summer rainfall MRM projection over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The inter‐RCM variability is the main contributor to the total uncertainty for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and South China during 2041–2060, while lowest for Northeast China, being less than 40%.