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Influence of preonset land atmospheric conditions on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability
Author(s) -
Rai Archana,
Saha Subodh K.,
Pokhrel Samir,
Sujith K.,
Halder Subhadeep
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1002/2015jd023159
Subject(s) - climatology , predictability , monsoon , anomaly (physics) , el niño southern oscillation , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , rossby wave , monsoon of south asia , geology , mathematics , statistics , physics , condensed matter physics
A possible link between preonset land atmospheric conditions and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is explored. It is shown that, the preonset positive (negative) rainfall anomaly over northwest India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran is associated with decrease (increase) in ISMR, primarily in the months of June and July, which in turn affects the seasonal mean. ISMR in the months of June and July is also strongly linked with the preonset 2 m air temperature over the same regions. The preonset rainfall/2 m air temperature variability is linked with stationary Rossby wave response, which is clearly evident in the wave activity flux diagnostics. As the predictability of Indian summer monsoon relies mainly on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the found link may further enhance our ability to predict the monsoon, particularly during a non‐ENSO year.