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Increasing influence of air temperature on upper Colorado River streamflow
Author(s) -
Woodhouse Connie A.,
Pederson Gregory T.,
Morino Kiyomi,
McAfee Stephanie A.,
McCabe Gregory J.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2015gl067613
Subject(s) - streamflow , precipitation , environmental science , antecedent moisture , moisture , drainage basin , climatology , hydrology (agriculture) , antecedent (behavioral psychology) , climate change , water content , atmospheric sciences , geology , meteorology , geography , psychology , developmental psychology , oceanography , cartography , geotechnical engineering , runoff curve number
This empirical study examines the influence of precipitation, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture on upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) water year streamflow over the past century. While cool season precipitation explains most of the variability in annual flows, temperature appears to be highly influential under certain conditions, with the role of antecedent fall soil moisture less clear. In both wet and dry years, when flow is substantially different than expected given precipitation, these factors can modulate the dominant precipitation influence on streamflow. Different combinations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture can result in flow deficits of similar magnitude, but recent droughts have been amplified by warmer temperatures that exacerbate the effects of relatively modest precipitation deficits. Since 1988, a marked increase in the frequency of warm years with lower flows than expected, given precipitation, suggests continued warming temperatures will be an increasingly important influence in reducing future UCRB water supplies.