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Projected intensification of subseasonal temperature variability and heat waves in the Great Plains
Author(s) -
Teng Haiyan,
Branstator Grant,
Meehl Gerald A.,
Washington Warren M.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2015gl067574
Subject(s) - heat wave , climatology , environmental science , middle latitudes , climate change , atmospheric sciences , atmosphere (unit) , geology , meteorology , geography , oceanography
Compared to changes in the climatological mean temperature, we have less confidence in how much and by what mechanisms temperature variability may be affected by anthropogenic climate change. Here based on a 30‐member climate change projection from an earth system model, we find that summertime subseasonal temperature variability in the U.S. Great Plains is enhanced by approximately 20% in 2070–2100 relative to 1980–2010. In particular, daily temperature departures from the new climatologies during future heat waves are on average 0.6°C warmer than are the corresponding departures under present‐day conditions. Although in both periods heat waves in the Great Plains tend to be associated with planetary wave events, the amplification of future heat waves does not appear to be induced by changes in planetary wave variability in the midlatitudes. Instead, in this experiment the strengthening appears to be primarily caused by enhanced local land‐atmosphere feedbacks resulting from a warmer/drier future climate.