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Projected changes in east Australian midlatitude cyclones during the 21st century
Author(s) -
Pepler Acacia S.,
Di Luca Alejandro,
Ji Fei,
Alexander Lisa V.,
Evans Jason P.,
Sherwood Steven C.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2015gl067267
Subject(s) - middle latitudes , cyclone (programming language) , climatology , east coast , extratropical cyclone , flooding (psychology) , environmental science , geology , oceanography , psychology , field programmable gate array , computer science , computer hardware , psychotherapist
The east coast of Australia is regularly influenced by midlatitude cyclones known as East Coast Lows. These form in a range of synoptic situations and are both a cause of severe weather and an important contributor to water security. This paper presents the first projections of future cyclone activity in this region using a regional climate model ensemble, with the use of a range of cyclone identification methods increasing the robustness of results. While there is considerable uncertainty in projections of cyclone frequency during the warm months, there is a robust agreement on a decreased frequency of cyclones during the winter months, when they are most common in the current climate. However, there is a potential increase in the frequency of cyclones with heavy rainfall and those closest to the coast and accordingly those with potential for severe flooding.