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Subseasonal prediction of Australian summer monsoon anomalies
Author(s) -
Marshall Andrew G.,
Hendon Harry H.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2015gl067086
Subject(s) - madden–julian oscillation , climatology , predictability , monsoon , anticyclone , environmental science , geology , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geography , convection , mathematics , statistics
Subseasonal prediction of Australian summer monsoon anomalies is assessed using 30 years of retrospective forecasts from version 2 of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia. Active and break monsoon rainfall episodes are associated with large‐scale cyclonic westerly and anticyclonic easterly winds, respectively, for which the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) makes a dominant contribution and thus is a source of predictability. Although the forecast model can predict the local large‐scale zonal wind anomalies for lead times beyond 4 weeks, predictive skill of the monsoon rainfall anomalies is limited to about 2 weeks. We show that improving the prediction of the MJO and its local expression in the summer monsoon leads to improved monsoon rainfall predictions at multiweek timescales.