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Seasonal climate forecasts significantly affected by observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice concentration
Author(s) -
Bunzel Felix,
Notz Dirk,
Baehr Johanna,
Müller Wolfgang A.,
Fröhlich Kristina
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2015gl066928
Subject(s) - hindcast , climatology , environmental science , sea ice , arctic ice pack , initialization , arctic , teleconnection , climate model , climate change , meteorology , oceanography , geology , geography , el niño southern oscillation , computer science , programming language
We investigate how observational uncertainty in satellite‐retrieved sea ice concentrations affects seasonal climate predictions. To do so, we initialize hindcast simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model every 1 May and 1 November from 1981 to 2011 with two different sea ice concentration data sets, one based on the NASA Team and one on the Bootstrap algorithm. For hindcasts started in November, initial differences in Arctic sea ice area and surface temperature decrease rapidly throughout the freezing period. For hindcasts started in May, initial differences in sea ice area increase over time. By the end of the melting period, this causes significant differences in 2 meter air temperature of regionally more than 3°C. Hindcast skill for surface temperatures over Europe and North America is higher with Bootstrap initialization during summer and with NASA Team initialization during winter. This implies that the observational uncertainty also affects forecasts of teleconnections that depend on northern hemispheric climate indices.