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A statistical model for seismic hazard assessment of hydraulic‐fracturing‐induced seismicity
Author(s) -
Hajati T.,
Langenbruch C.,
Shapiro S. A.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2015gl066652
Subject(s) - induced seismicity , hydraulic fracturing , geology , microseism , seismology , aftershock , geomechanics , probability density function , geotechnical engineering , statistics , mathematics
Abstract We analyze the interevent time distribution of hydraulic‐fracturing‐induced seismicity collected during 18 stages at four different regions. We identify a universal statistical process describing the distribution of hydraulic‐fracturing‐induced events in time. The distribution of waiting times between subsequently occurring events is given by the exponential probability density function of the homogeneous Poisson process. Our findings suggest that hydraulic‐fracturing‐induced seismicity is directly triggered by the relaxation of stress and pore pressure perturbation initially created by the injection. Therefore, compared to this relaxation, the stress transfer caused by the occurrence of preceding seismic events is mainly insignificant for the seismogenesis of subsequently occurring events. We develop a statistical model to compute the occurrence probability of hydraulic‐fracturing‐induced seismicity. This model can be used to assess the seismic hazard associated with hydraulic fracturing operations. No aftershock triggering has to be included in the statistical model.