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Emergence of human influence on summer record‐breaking temperatures over Europe
Author(s) -
Bador Margot,
Terray Laurent,
Boé Julien
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2015gl066560
Subject(s) - coupled model intercomparison project , climatology , environmental science , range (aeronautics) , climate model , climate change , ensemble average , greenhouse gas , historical record , climate system , present day , atmospheric sciences , geology , physics , history , oceanography , materials science , astronomy , composite material , memoir , art history
Observational analysis of Europe summer record‐breaking temperatures suggests that their occurrence differs from that expected in a stationary climate since the late 1980s. The observed cold and warm record evolution is well simulated by the ensemble mean of 27 coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that this evolution is still today within the range of internal variability derived from CMIP5 preindustrial simulations. We then estimate a time of emergence of the summer record anthropogenic influence in a world under a business as usual greenhouse gas emission scenario. We suggest a time of emergence around 2020 for the cold records and 2030 for the warm ones with an uncertainty of ± 20 years. By 2100, the multimodel ensemble mean indicates a tenfold increase of the number of warm records compared to the first half of the twentieth century and the quasi‐disappearance of cold records.