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The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall
Author(s) -
Spracklen D. V.,
GarciaCarreras L.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2015gl066063
Subject(s) - amazonian , amazon rainforest , deforestation (computer science) , amazon basin , environmental science , structural basin , climatology , climate change , hydrology (agriculture) , geography , physical geography , geology , ecology , geomorphology , computer science , biology , programming language , oceanography , geotechnical engineering
We completed a meta‐analysis of regional and global climate model simulations ( n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (±1 σ ) change in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was −12 ± 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 ± 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business‐as‐usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 ± 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.