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Unraveling the missing link of ENSO control over the Indian monsoon rainfall
Author(s) -
Dwivedi Suneet,
Goswami B. N.,
Kucharski Fred
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2015gl065909
Subject(s) - teleconnection , el niño southern oscillation , climatology , la niña , environmental science , monsoon , multivariate enso index , atmospheric sciences , geology
Using long daily rainfall (113 years) data, clear evidence of modulation of the statistics of subseasonal active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is unraveled. We show that during the El Niño (La Nina) years, the frequency of longer break (active) spells and shorter active (break) spells increases substantially, while the frequency of shorter breaks (active) and longer active (break) spells decreases compared to ENSO neutral years. It is shown that the large‐scale teleconnection through which ENSO weakens (strengthens) the ISMR through shortening (lengthening) of the length of rainy season (LRS) also creates a background for modulation of the statistics of subseasonal spells leading to a further reduction (increase) in the ISMR during El Niño (La Niña) years. Our findings indicate that the “statistics of subseasonal spells” is predictable, brightening the prospect of seasonal prediction of the ISMR.