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Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa
Author(s) -
Maidment Ross I.,
Allan Richard P.,
Black Emily
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2015gl065765
Subject(s) - climatology , precipitation , environmental science , coupled model intercomparison project , rain gauge , spurious relationship , sea surface temperature , atmosphere (unit) , general circulation model , atmospheric sciences , climate change , geography , meteorology , geology , oceanography , machine learning , computer science
Multiple observational data sets and atmosphere‐only simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are analyzed to characterize recent rainfall variability and trends over Africa focusing on 1983–2010. Data sets exhibiting spurious variability, linked in part to a reduction in rain gauge density, were identified. The remaining observations display coherent increases in annual Sahel rainfall (29 to 43 mm yr −1 per decade), decreases in March–May East African rainfall (−14 to −65 mm yr −1 per decade), and increases in annual Southern Africa rainfall (32 to 41 mm yr −1 per decade). However, Central Africa annual rainfall trends vary in sign (−10 to +39 mm yr −1 per decade). For Southern Africa, observed and sea surface temperature (SST)‐forced model simulated rainfall variability are significantly correlated ( r ~0.5) and linked to SST patterns associated with recent strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation.