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Using scaling for macroweather forecasting including the pause
Author(s) -
Lovejoy S.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2015gl065665
Subject(s) - hindcast , coupled model intercomparison project , climatology , scaling , meteorology , climate model , environmental science , scalar (mathematics) , climate change , mathematics , geology , geography , geometry , oceanography
Abstract The ScaLIng Macroweather model (SLIMM) is a new class of stochastic atmospheric model. It exploits the large system memory to overcome the biases of conventional numerical climate models, it makes hindcasts and forecasts over macroweather forecast horizons (≈10 days to decades). Using the simplest (scalar), SLIMM model with only two parameters, we present various twentieth century hindcasts including several of the slowdown (“pause”) in the warming since 1998. The 1999–2013 hindcast is accurate to within ±0.11 K, with all the 2002–2013 anomalies hindcast to within ±0.02 K. In comparison, the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 hindcasts were on average about 0.2 K too warm.