Premium
Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024
Author(s) -
Thoma Malte,
Greatbatch Richard J.,
Kadow Christopher,
Gerdes Ruediger
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2015gl064833
Subject(s) - hindcast , initialization , climatology , wind stress , environmental science , forcing (mathematics) , hiatus , forecast skill , meteorology , geology , computer science , geography , paleontology , programming language
We use surface air temperature to evaluate the decadal forecast skill of the fully coupled Max Planck Institut Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM) initialized using only surface wind stress applied to the ocean component of the model (Modini: Model initialization by partially coupled spin‐up). Our analysis shows that the greenhouse gas forcing alone results in a significant forecast skill on the 2–5 and 6–9 year range even for uninitialized hindcasts. For the first forecast year, the forecast skill of Modini is generally comparable with previous initialization procedures applied to MPI‐ESM. But only Modini is able to generate a significant skill (correlation) in the tropical Pacific for a 2–5 year (and to a lesser extent for a 6–9 year) hindcast. Modini is also better able to capture the observed hiatus in global warming in hindcast mode than the other methods. Finally, we present forecasts for 2015 and the average of years 2016–2019 and 2020–2024, predicting an end to the hiatus.