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Selecting climate change scenarios using impact‐relevant sensitivities
Author(s) -
Vano Julie A.,
Kim John B.,
Rupp David E.,
Mote Philip W.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2015gl063208
Subject(s) - climate change , environmental science , precipitation , climatology , range (aeronautics) , futures contract , streamflow , ecosystem , variable (mathematics) , climate model , general circulation model , environmental resource management , meteorology , drainage basin , geography , geology , ecology , oceanography , mathematics , mathematical analysis , materials science , cartography , financial economics , economics , composite material , biology
Climate impact studies often require the selection of a small number of climate scenarios. Ideally, a subset would have simulations that both (1) appropriately represent the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation and (2) come from global climate models (GCMs) that provide plausible results for future climate in the region of interest. We demonstrate an approach to select a subset of GCMs that incorporates both concepts and provides insights into the range of climate impacts. To represent how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an ecosystem variable responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We illustrate our approach in the Pacific Northwest, focusing on (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon.