Climate‐forced changes in available energy and methane bubbling from subarctic lakes

Strong correlations between seasonal energy input and methane (CH 4 ) bubbling (ebullition) in northern lakes suggest that energy proxies might provide a constraint on the magnitude of future CH 4 emissions. Ebullition is a major pathway for transporting anaerobically produced CH 4 from lake sediments to the atmosphere and represents a large unquantified CH 4 source. In high‐latitude, postglacial lakes during the ice‐free season, solar shortwave energy input can constrain CH 4 productivity via control of sediment temperature. Utilizing long‐term climatic predictors, we calculate CH 4 ebullition from three subarctic lakes in northern Sweden over the period of 1916–2079. Using observed energy trends, the seasonal average lake CH 4 ebullition is predicted to increase by 80% between the 1916–1926 decade and the 2040–2079 period. Present‐day seasonal average methane ebullition is estimated to have already increased 24% since the 1916–1926 decade.