Open AccessThe heliospheric magnetic flux, solar wind proton flux, and cosmic ray intensity during the coming solar minimum
Author(s) -
Smith Charles W.,
McCracken K. G.,
Schwadron Nathan A.,
Goelzer Molly L.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
space weather
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.254
H-Index - 56
ISSN - 1542-7390
DOI - 10.1002/2014sw001067
Subject(s) - sunspot , physics , space weather , solar wind , cosmic ray , solar cycle 22 , solar minimum , coronal mass ejection , flux (metallurgy) , solar cycle , magnetic flux , astrophysics , heliospheric current sheet , solar maximum , heliosphere , astronomy , magnetic field , plasma , nuclear physics , materials science , quantum mechanics , metallurgy
Abstract Recent papers have linked the heliospheric magnetic flux to the sunspot cycle with good correlation observed between prediction and observation. Other papers have shown a strong correlation between magnetic flux and solar wind proton flux from coronal holes. We combine these efforts with an expectation that the sunspot activity of the approaching solar minimum will resemble the Dalton or Gleissberg Minimum and predict that the magnetic flux and solar wind proton flux over the coming decade will be lower than at any time during the space age. Using these predictions and established theory, we also predict record high galactic cosmic ray intensities over the same years. The analysis shown here is a prediction of global space climate change within which space weather operates. It predicts a new parameter regime for the transient space weather behavior that can be expected during the coming decade.