Open AccessTemporal, probabilistic mapping of ash clouds using wind field stochastic variability and uncertain eruption source parameters: Example of the 14 A pril 2010 E yjafjallajökull eruption
Author(s) -
Stefanescu E. R.,
Patra A. K.,
Bursik M. I.,
Madankan R.,
Pouget S.,
Jones M.,
Singla P.,
Singh T.,
Pitman E. B.,
Pavolonis M.,
Morton D.,
Webley P.,
Dehn J.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
journal of advances in modeling earth systems
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.03
H-Index - 58
ISSN - 1942-2466
DOI - 10.1002/2014ms000332
Subject(s) - volcanic ash , probabilistic logic , volcano , meteorology , geology , statistical model , wind speed , atmosphere (unit) , environmental science , uncertainty quantification , a priori and a posteriori , atmospheric sciences , geophysics , seismology , physics , statistics , mathematics , philosophy , epistemology
Uncertainty in predictions from a model of volcanic ash transport in the atmosphere arises from uncertainty in both eruption source parameters and the model wind field. In a previous contribution, we analyzed the probability of ash cloud presence using weighted samples of volcanic ash transport and dispersal model runs and a reanalysis wind field to propagate uncertainty in eruption source parameters alone. In this contribution, the probabilistic modeling is extended by using ensemble forecast wind fields as well as uncertain source parameters. The impact on ash transport of variability in wind fields due to unresolved scales of motion as well as model physics uncertainty is also explored. We have therefore generated a weighted, probabilistic forecast of volcanic ash transport with only a priori information, exploring uncertainty in both the wind field and the volcanic source.