Effects of submarine groundwater discharge on the present‐day extent of relict submarine permafrost and gas hydrate stability on the Beaufort Sea continental shelf

We investigate the role of submarine groundwater discharge on the offshore temperature and salinity field and its effect on the present‐day extent of submarine permafrost and gas hydrate stability on the North American Beaufort Shelf with a two‐dimensional numerical model based on the finite volume method. This study finds that submarine groundwater discharge can play a large role in submarine permafrost evolution and gas hydrate stability, suggesting that local hydrology may control the evolution of submarine permafrost as strongly as does sea level or paleoclimatic conditions. Submarine permafrost evolution shows transient behavior over potentially long time scales (e.g., several glacial cycles) before a balance of density‐ and pressure‐driven flows is established with the permeability variations imposed by the overlying permafrost layer. The “detectable” offshore permafrost extent is related to the quasi‐stationary location of the saltwater‐freshwater transition. Larger values of submarine groundwater discharge allow permafrost to extend farther offshore because fresh pore water preserves relict ice. Therefore, differences in the permafrost extent at locations that share similar paleoclimatic history may be explained in part by differences in the local hydrology. Gas hydrate stability on the North American Beaufort Shelf may be more widespread than currently thought because low‐ice saturation, highly degraded submarine permafrost likely exists beyond the boundary detectable by common geophysical methods.