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Changes in precipitation pattern and risk of drought over India in the context of global warming
Author(s) -
Mishra Anoop,
Liu Shaw Chen
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1002/2014jd021471
Subject(s) - precipitation , context (archaeology) , global warming , environmental science , climatology , climate change , atmospheric sciences , geography , meteorology , biology , ecology , geology , archaeology
Precipitation pattern has changed over many regions in recent decades. There are evidences of increased heavy precipitation and decreased light precipitation in widespread parts of the globe due to global warming. Many studies over Indian region focus on heavy precipitation and risk of floods. But few works discuss the changes in light precipitation and risk of droughts. In this study, changes in total dry days, prolonged dry spells, light precipitation, and risk of drought as indicated by Modified Palmer Index (MPI) over India during six decades (1951–2010) are examined quantitatively in the context of global warming. It is found that there are increases of 49% ± 21% and 33% ± 17% in prolonged dry spells and total dry days, respectively, over India for each degree Kelvin (K) increase in global mean temperature. There is an increase of 51% ± 24% K −1 in drought index MPI (<= − 2.0). There is also a reduction of 31 ± 14% K −1 in light precipitation days over India. These changes are more severe over northeastern and western part of India. Increases in prolonged dry spells, total dry days, and decreases in light precipitation relate well with the increases in drought index MPI (<= − 2.0). These results suggest that there is an increased risk of drought due to increased prolonged dry spells, total dry days, and decreased light precipitation days over India as a result of global warming.