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An interdecadal regime shift in rainfall predictability related to the Ningaloo Niño in the late 1990s
Author(s) -
Doi Takeshi,
Behera Swadhin K.,
Yamagata Toshio
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: oceans
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-9291
pISSN - 2169-9275
DOI - 10.1002/2014jc010562
Subject(s) - predictability , climatology , el niño southern oscillation , environmental science , oceanography , climate change , warning system , global warming , agriculture , geography , geology , physics , archaeology , quantum mechanics , aerospace engineering , engineering
The global warming and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) started influencing the coastal ocean off Western Australia, leading to a dramatic change in the regional climate predictability. The warmer ocean started driving rainfall variability regionally there after the late 1990s. Because of this, rainfall predictability near the coastal region of Western Australia on a seasonal time scale was drastically enhanced in the late 1990s; it is significantly predictable 5 months ahead after the late 1990s. The high prediction skill of the rainfall in recent decades is very encouraging and would help to develop an early warning system of Ningaloo Niño/Niña events to mitigate possible societal as well as agricultural impacts in the granary of Western Australia.