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Simulation of high‐energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX‐VERB coupled codes
Author(s) -
Pakhotin I. P.,
Drozdov A. Y.,
Shprits Y. Y.,
Boynton R. J.,
Subbotin D. A.,
Balikhin M. A.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: space physics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-9402
pISSN - 2169-9380
DOI - 10.1002/2014ja020238
Subject(s) - van allen radiation belt , physics , radiation , earth's magnetic field , range (aeronautics) , electron , flux (metallurgy) , geosynchronous orbit , computational physics , geophysics , atmospheric sciences , magnetosphere , magnetic field , plasma , aerospace engineering , astronomy , nuclear physics , satellite , chemistry , quantum mechanics , organic chemistry , engineering
This study presents a fusion of data‐driven and physics‐driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Data‐driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics‐based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed.