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Stochastic modeling of decadal variability in ocean gyres
Author(s) -
Kondrashov D.,
Berloff P.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2014gl062871
Subject(s) - ocean gyre , nonlinear system , ocean current , scale (ratio) , ocean dynamics , closure (psychology) , stochastic modelling , singular spectrum analysis , mode (computer interface) , climatology , geology , statistical physics , computer science , singular value decomposition , mathematics , algorithm , physics , statistics , subtropics , fishery , biology , quantum mechanics , economics , market economy , operating system
Decadal large‐scale low‐frequency variability of the ocean circulation due to its nonlinear dynamics remains a big challenge for theoretical understanding and practical ocean modeling. This paper presents a novel fully data driven approach that addresses this challenge. Proposed is non‐Markovian low‐order methodology with stochastic closure and use of mode decomposition by multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis. The multilayer stochastic linear model is obtained from the coarse‐grained eddy‐resolving ocean model solution, and with high accuracy it reproduces the main statistical properties of the decadal variability. The proposed methodology does not depend on the governing fluid dynamics equations and geometry of the problem, and it can be extended to other ocean models and ultimately to the real data.