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Variation of the global electric circuit and Ionospheric potential in a general circulation model
Author(s) -
Mareev E. A.,
Volodin E. M.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2014gl062352
Subject(s) - thunderstorm , ionosphere , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , climatology , lightning (connector) , global warming , atmospheric electricity , atmosphere (unit) , meteorology , climate change , geology , electric field , physics , oceanography , geophysics , power (physics) , quantum mechanics
A general circulation model of the atmosphere and ocean INMCM4.0 (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Coupled Model) is used for modeling the global electric circuit short‐time variability and long‐term evolution. The ionospheric potential parameterization is proposed which takes into account quasi‐stationary currents of electrified clouds (including thunderstorms) as principal contributors into the DC global circuit. The diurnal, seasonal, and interannual variations of the ionospheric potential (IP) are modeled and compared with available data. Numerical simulations suggest that the IP decreases in the mean with the global warming due to increasing greenhouse gas emission (by about 10% during the 21st century if the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Wm −2 scenario is assumed). At the same time the lightning flash rate increases with global warming by about 5 fl/s per degree. Interannual IP variability is low and does not exceed 1% of the mean value, being tightly correlated with the mean sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean (El Niño area).