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Atmospheric fronts in current and future climates
Author(s) -
Catto J. L.,
Nicholls N.,
Jakob C.,
Shelton K. L.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2014gl061943
Subject(s) - front (military) , maxima , storm track , storm , environmental science , middle latitudes , coupled model intercomparison project , climatology , cold front , northern hemisphere , atmospheric sciences , southern hemisphere , climate change , climate model , meteorology , geology , geography , oceanography , art , performance art , art history
Abstract Atmospheric fronts are important for the day‐to‐day variability of weather in the midlatitudes. It is therefore vital to know how their distribution and frequency will change in a projected warmer climate. Here we apply an objective front identification method, based on a thermal front parameter, to 6‐hourly data from models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The historical simulations are evaluated against ERA‐Interim and found to produce a similar frequency of fronts and with similar front strength. The models show some biases in the location of the front frequency maxima. Future changes are estimated using the high emissions scenario simulations (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). Projections show an overall decrease in front frequency in the Northern Hemisphere, with a poleward shift of the maxima of front frequency and a strong decrease at high latitudes where the temperature gradient is decreased. The Southern Hemisphere shows a poleward shift of the frequency maximum, consistent with previous storm track studies.