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Under what circumstances does a seismogenic patch produce aseismic transients in the later interseismic period?
Author(s) -
Noda H.,
Hori T.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2014gl061676
Subject(s) - nucleation , creep , geology , transient (computer programming) , series (stratigraphy) , seismology , stability (learning theory) , physics , computer science , paleontology , machine learning , thermodynamics , operating system
Whether aseismic transients occur as the next earthquake approaches or not is an important problem in the area of disaster mitigation by geophysical observation. We conducted a series of rate‐state (aging law) earthquake sequence simulations with inertial effects and revealed that A / B (direct effect/evolution effect) is a key parameter controlling the complexity of interseismic behavior in a seismogenic patch. Interseismically, a creep front invades a locked patch. If A / B ≤0.4, nucleation takes place as soon as the linear stability of the coherent creep is violated, and no significant aseismic transient occurs. If A / B ≥0.4, nucleation size is given by the energy balance criterion, and if A / B ≥0.6, aseismic transients occur after the violation of linear stability and before the creeping region is able to host the nucleation. Thus, not only A − B but also A / B must be selected carefully to obtain realistic results in numerical simulations.