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Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985–2012
Author(s) -
Allan Richard P.,
Liu Chunlei,
Loeb Norman G.,
Palmer Matthew D.,
Roberts Malcolm,
Smith Doug,
Vidale PierLuigi
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2014gl060962
Subject(s) - climatology , environmental science , satellite , radiative transfer , atmosphere (unit) , atmospheric sciences , climate model , radiative forcing , climate change , flux (metallurgy) , sea surface temperature , meteorology , geology , geography , physics , materials science , quantum mechanics , astronomy , metallurgy , oceanography
Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses, and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere ( N ) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985–1999 period mean N (0.34 ± 0.67 Wm −2 ) is lower than for the 2000–2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 Wm −2 , uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude of N remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability in N generated by an ensemble of nine climate model simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings and from the satellite‐based reconstruction is significantly correlated ( r ∼0.6) over the 1985–2012 period.