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Isolating the anthropogenic component of Arctic warming
Author(s) -
Chylek Petr,
Hengartner Nicholas,
Lesins Glen,
Klett James D.,
Humlum Ole,
Wyatt Marcia,
Dubey Manvendra K.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2014gl060184
Subject(s) - climatology , arctic , environmental science , forcing (mathematics) , radiative forcing , arctic oscillation , atmospheric sciences , climate model , arctic geoengineering , the arctic , global warming , climate change , arctic ice pack , sea ice , oceanography , geology , sea ice thickness , northern hemisphere
Structural equation modeling is used in statistical applications as both confirmatory and exploratory modeling to test models and to suggest the most plausible explanation for a relationship between the independent and the dependent variables. Although structural analysis cannot prove causation, it can suggest the most plausible set of factors that influence the observed variable. We apply structural model analysis to the annual mean Arctic surface air temperature from 1900 to 2012 to find the most effective set of predictors and to isolate the anthropogenic component of the recent Arctic warming by subtracting the effects of natural forcing and variability from the observed temperature. We find that anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols radiative forcing and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation internal mode dominate Arctic temperature variability. Our structural model analysis of observational data suggests that about half of the recent Arctic warming of 0.64 K/decade may have anthropogenic causes.