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The response of the Southern Hemispheric eddy‐driven jet to future changes in shortwave radiation in CMIP5
Author(s) -
Ceppi Paulo,
Zelinka Mark D.,
Hartmann Dennis L.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2014gl060043
Subject(s) - baroclinity , shortwave , middle latitudes , shortwave radiation , climatology , coupled model intercomparison project , environmental science , zonal and meridional , atmospheric sciences , jet (fluid) , climate model , climate change , radiation , geology , radiative transfer , physics , oceanography , mechanics , quantum mechanics
A strong relationship is found between changes in the meridional gradient of absorbed shortwave radiation (ASR) and Southern Hemispheric jet shifts in 21st century climate simulations of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) coupled models. The relationship is such that models with increases in the meridional ASR gradient around the southern midlatitudes, and therefore increases in midlatitude baroclinicity, tend to produce a larger poleward jet shift. The ASR changes are shown to be dominated by changes in cloud properties, with sea ice declines playing a secondary role. We demonstrate that the ASR changes are the cause, and not the result, of the intermodel differences in jet response by comparing coupled simulations with experiments in which sea surface temperature increases are prescribed. Our results highlight the importance of reducing the uncertainty in cloud feedbacks in order to constrain future circulation changes.