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The effects of changing winds and temperatures on the oceanography of the Ross Sea in the 21st century
Author(s) -
Smith Walker O.,
Dinniman Michael S.,
Hofmann Eileen E.,
Klinck John M.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2014gl059311
Subject(s) - oceanography , environmental science , sea ice , marine ecosystem , phytoplankton , continental shelf , climatology , ice shelf , mixed layer , geology , ecosystem , cryosphere , nutrient , ecology , biology , chemistry , organic chemistry
The Ross Sea is critically important in regulating Antarctic sea ice and is biologically productive, which makes changes in the region's physical environment of global concern. We examined the effects of projected changes in atmospheric temperatures and winds on aspects of the ocean circulation likely important to primary production using a high‐resolution sea ice‐ocean‐ice shelf model of the Ross Sea. The modeled summer sea‐ice concentrations decreased by 56% by 2050 and 78% by 2100. The duration of shallow mixed layers over the continental shelf increased by 8.5 and 19.2 days in 2050 and 2100, and the mean summer mixed layer depths decreased by 12 and 44%. These results suggest that the annual phytoplankton production in the future will increase and become more diatomaceous. Other components of the Ross Sea food web will likely be severely disrupted, creating significant but unpredictable impacts on the ocean's most pristine ecosystem.