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Epidemiology of urban water distribution systems
Author(s) -
Bardet JeanPierre,
Little Richard
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1002/2013wr015017
Subject(s) - flood myth , distribution (mathematics) , environmental science , epidemiology , forensic engineering , engineering , geography , medicine , mathematics , mathematical analysis , archaeology
Urban water distribution systems worldwide contain numerous old and fragile pipes that inevitably break, flood streets and damage property, and disrupt economic and social activities. Such breaks often present dramatically in temporal clusters as occurred in Los Angeles during 2009. These clustered pipe breaks share many characteristics with human mortality observed during extreme climatological events such as heat waves or air pollution. Drawing from research and empirical studies in human epidemiology, a framework is introduced to analyze the time variations of disruptive pipe breaks that can help water agencies better understand clustered pipe failures and institute measures to minimize the disruptions caused by them. It is posited that at any time, a cohort of the pipes comprising the water distribution system will be in a weakened state due to fatigue and corrosion. This frail cohort becomes vulnerable during normal operations and ultimately breaks due to rapid increase in crack lengths induced by abnormal stressors. The epidemiological harvesting model developed in this paper simulates an observed time series of monthly pipe breaks and has both explanatory and predictive power. It also demonstrates that models from nonengineering disciplines such as medicine can provide improved insights into the performance of infrastructure systems.