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A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns
Author(s) -
Gray Lesley J.,
Scaife Adam A.,
Mitchell Daniel M.,
Osprey Scott,
Ineson Sarah,
Hardiman Steven,
Butchart Neal,
Knight Jeff,
Sutton Rowan,
Kodera Kunihiko
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1002/2013jd020062
Subject(s) - north atlantic oscillation , climatology , solar cycle , sea surface temperature , environmental science , lag , solar maximum , stratosphere , atmospheric sciences , period (music) , geology , physics , computer network , quantum mechanics , magnetic field , computer science , solar wind , acoustics
The surface response to 11 year solar cycle variations is investigated by analyzing the long‐term mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature observations for the period 1870–2010. The analysis reveals a statistically significant 11 year solar signal over Europe, and the North Atlantic provided that the data are lagged by a few years. The delayed signal resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following a solar maximum. The corresponding sea surface temperature response is consistent with this. A similar analysis is performed on long‐term climate simulations from a coupled ocean‐atmosphere version of the Hadley Centre model that has an extended upper lid so that influences of solar variability via the stratosphere are well resolved. The model reproduces the positive NAO signal over the Atlantic/European sector, but the lag of the surface response is not well reproduced. Possible mechanisms for the lagged nature of the observed response are discussed.