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An analysis of heliospheric magnetic field flux based on sunspot number from 1749 to today and prediction for the coming solar minimum
Author(s) -
Goelzer Molly L.,
Smith Charles W.,
Schwadron Nathan A.,
McCracken K. G.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: space physics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-9402
pISSN - 2169-9380
DOI - 10.1002/2013ja019404
Subject(s) - sunspot , solar cycle 22 , physics , coronal mass ejection , solar minimum , solar wind , space weather , heliosphere , interplanetary magnetic field , solar cycle 23 , solar maximum , astrophysics , corona (planetary geology) , flux (metallurgy) , solar cycle , astronomy , magnetic field , plasma , astrobiology , nuclear physics , materials science , quantum mechanics , venus , metallurgy
It is now well established that many bulk properties of the solar wind rise and fall with the solar cycle, and the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) intensity is no exception. The HMF intensity is seen to be maximum around the time of solar maximum, lowest during solar minimum, and lower still during the recent protracted solar minimum 2006–2009. One explanation of this behavior can be found in the theory of Schwadron et al. (2010) that argues magnetic flux is injected into interplanetary space by coronal mass ejection eruptions and removed by reconnection in the low solar atmosphere. This produces an HMF intensity that is correlated with sunspot number, and the rapid injection of flux followed by the slow removal by reconnection results in a hysteresis effect that is readily evident in the observations. Here for the first time we apply this theory to the sunspot record going back to 1749 and compare favorably our predictions to the results derived from 10 Be observations. We also make a prediction for the coming solar minimum based on results from the Dalton Minimum.