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Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models
Author(s) -
Tietsche S.,
Day J. J.,
Guemas V.,
Hurlin W. J.,
Keeley S. P. E.,
Matei D.,
Msadek R.,
Collins M.,
Hawkins E.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2013gl058755
Subject(s) - predictability , sea ice , arctic ice pack , climatology , environmental science , arctic , arctic sea ice decline , climate model , advection , current (fluid) , cryosphere , climate change , geology , oceanography , drift ice , physics , thermodynamics , quantum mechanics
We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present‐day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state‐of‐the‐art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate.