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Continuous‐time markov duels: Theory and application
Author(s) -
Barfoot C. Bernard
Publication year - 1989
Publication title -
naval research logistics (nrl)
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.665
H-Index - 68
eISSN - 1520-6750
pISSN - 0894-069X
DOI - 10.1002/1520-6750(198906)36:3<243::aid-nav3220360302>3.0.co;2-t
Subject(s) - surprise , markov chain , computer science , continuous variable , adversary , random variable , statistics , mathematics , computer security , machine learning , psychology , social psychology
Abstract This article extends the previous research on Markov duels (stochastic duels between weapons with Markov‐dependent fire) to situations in which the time between rounds fired by each duelist is a continuous random variable that depends on the state of combat. Three starting conditions for the duels are considered: simultaneous detection, surprise by one duelist with continuous time detection by his opponent, and surprise with discrete time detection. The amount of surprise is treated as both a constant and a random variable. An application of these models to an evaluation of armored vehicles is described. The methods used to consider a variety of engagement ranges, tactical situations, and target types (both lethal and nonlethal) are discussed. The procedure for incorporating nonduel attrition into the analysis is described and the exchange rate (the expected number of enemy targets killed per armored vehicle killed) is derived.