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A short‐run forecasting model for nitrogen fertilizer prices
Author(s) -
Vroomen Harry
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
agribusiness
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.57
H-Index - 43
eISSN - 1520-6297
pISSN - 0742-4477
DOI - 10.1002/1520-6297(199111)7:6<515::aid-agr2720070602>3.0.co;2-r
Subject(s) - fertilizer , econometrics , nitrogen fertilizer , economics , anhydrous , variable (mathematics) , regression analysis , nitrogen , environmental science , agricultural economics , mathematics , statistics , chemistry , mathematical analysis , organic chemistry
Regression and time‐series analysis are integrated to develop a short‐run price forecasting model for the retail prices of major nitrogen fertilizer materials. Time‐series analysis is conducted to generate future values of the wholesale price of anhydrous ammonia, the source of nearly all nitrogen fertilizers used in the United States. These forecasts are incorporated as an explanatory variable into regression equations to forecast the retail prices of five nitrogen fertilizer materials for the spring, the peak demand season for fertilizer. Results show that this method can perform with reasonable accuracy for short‐term forecasting purposes.