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The Prediction of Permafrost Change along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway, China
Author(s) -
Qingbai Wu,
Xin Li,
Wenjun Li
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
permafrost and periglacial processes
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.867
H-Index - 76
eISSN - 1099-1530
pISSN - 1045-6740
DOI - 10.1002/1099-1530(200012)11:4<371::aid-ppp354>3.0.co;2-t
Subject(s) - permafrost , plateau (mathematics) , geology , physical geography , geomorphology , altitude (triangle) , geography , oceanography , mathematical analysis , geometry , mathematics
A GIS‐ and GCM‐based permafrost response model is used to predict changes in permafrost distribution along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway. By 2009 permafrost will degrade in the lower altitudinal zones of marginal and/or sporadic permafrost. However, by 2049 the lower permafrost limit on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau will have retreated approximately 5–10 km both north and south along the highway. By 2099, the model suggests that permafrost will remain only on the higher elevations of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.