Premium
Time series models for short term forecasting of ozone in the eastern part of Austria
Author(s) -
Bauer Gerd,
Deistler Manfred,
Scherrer Wolfgang
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
environmetrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.68
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1099-095X
pISSN - 1180-4009
DOI - 10.1002/1099-095x(200103)12:2<117::aid-env448>3.0.co;2-n
Subject(s) - conurbation , ozone , autoregressive model , term (time) , environmental science , series (stratigraphy) , meteorology , autoregressive integrated moving average , time series , atmospheric sciences , climatology , econometrics , mathematics , statistics , geography , geology , physics , paleontology , archaeology , quantum mechanics
Ozone and several meteorological variables are monitored routinely at several monitoring sites in Austria. Enhanced ozone formation is mainly observed in the eastern part of the country, where peaks occur in the lee of the conurbation area of Vienna. The time series structure of ozone data within this area is analyzed by using autoregressive type models with an exogenous part (ARX) . In particular, separate ARX models for each time of the day, threshold ARX models for defined ozone regimes, as well as periodic ARX models are applied. The analysis of the estimated coefficients gives some insight into the dynamics of ozone and its explanation by meteorological variables. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.