Predicting monthly and seasonal rainfall, onset and cessation of the rainy season in West Africa using only surface data

New empirical long‐range schemes for the prediction of dates of onset and cessation and of the monthly and annual amounts of rainfall are developed for Kano, in the West African Sahel, using only surface synoptic data. They are based on variations in equivalent potential temperature, θ e , which occur as a result of the seasonal, monthly and daily variations of moisture in the summer monsoon flow over West Africa. Agricultural activities may begin about 72 days after the day the anomalies of θ e (i.e. θ' ) first become positive for at least 15 days, essentially signifying the beginning of adequate moisture supply associated with a well established monsoon flow. The new schemes ensure that both the cessation date and the annual amount of rainfall can be predicted prior to the onset of the rains, thus providing, in conjunction with the onset date, very important and useful information for reliable and effective planning of agricultural and water resource activities. Performance tests using an 11‐year independent data set indicate that the schemes possess reliable skill. Because the weather over Nigeria is very typical of the entire West African region, being affected by the same wind regime and weather phenomena, these prediction schemes will provide tremendous assistance for enhanced and sustainable agriculture, as well as for efficient water resources management, if extended to the whole area. Furthermore, the methods have the important advantage that, bearing in mind the fact that the majority of West African countries have very sparse, if indeed, any upper‐air data, the surface synoptic data needed for their use are readily available in all of the countries. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society